Radomiak Radom 2-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Monday 11 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Radomiak Radom, 1.20 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Jagiellonia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Radomiak Radom 0W, Jagiellonia 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 56% versus Jagiellonia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 37% | Jagiellonia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.49 xG and Jagiellonia 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.953 / defence 1.034 | Jagiellonia attack 0.793 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.096. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Radomiak Radom games / 27 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 21%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 4.76. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 70% | Jagiellonia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.49 / Jagiellonia 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.953 / def 1.034 | Jagiellonia attack 0.793 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Jagiellonia xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 50% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.79x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
50%
2.02
29%
3.45
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.38
0.90
Jagiellonia xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
20.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.90 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 12D 5L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.22 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 6W 6D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 10W 12D 5L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Jagiellonia away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.85 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Radomiak Radom, 62% for Jagiellonia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Radomiak Radom) and 69% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Radomiak Radom's games and 62% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 69% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 28, as Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.49 xG and Jagiellonia 0.90 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Jagiellonia attack 0.79 / defence 1.47, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 21%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 37%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.56 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.