Radomiak Radom 1-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka Radom: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Gornik Zabrze and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 39% versus Gornik Zabrze 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 39% | Gornik Zabrze 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.17 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.823 / defence 0.893 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.053 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.267. Data: 51 Radomiak Radom games / 51 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 32% | Gornik Zabrze 35%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Gornik Zabrze 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Gornik Zabrze 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 32% | Gornik Zabrze 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.17 / Gornik Zabrze 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.823 / def 0.893 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.053 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Gornik Zabrze xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 34% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Gornik Zabrze 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.82) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (1.05x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.15
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.37
1.19
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.19 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 12D 21L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 19W 13D 19L from 51 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.37 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 6D 11L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.24 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Gornik Zabrze's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.12 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 4-0 on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 40%, Gornik Zabrze 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Radomiak Radom) and 48% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 48% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 18, as Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.17 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.19 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 32% | Gornik Zabrze 35%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 39%, Gornik Zabrze 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.29 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.