Pogon Szczecin 3-2 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Miedz Legnica to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Miedz Legnica have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Miedz Legnica have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Miedz Legnica and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 4–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Miedz Legnica trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 64% and Miedz Legnica 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 58% | Miedz Legnica 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.93 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.238 / defence 1.239 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.793 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.012. Data: 65 Pogon Szczecin games / 31 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 58% | Draw 23% | Miedz Legnica 18%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Miedz Legnica 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Miedz Legnica 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 58% | Draw 23% | Miedz Legnica 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.93 / Miedz Legnica 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.238 / def 1.239 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.793 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Miedz Legnica xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 2 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 58% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 0 | Miedz Legnica 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Miedz Legnica's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Miedz Legnica's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.30
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.93
0.99
Miedz Legnica xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
3%
37.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.99 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 15W 9D 7L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Miedz Legnica's form line: 4W 10D 17L from 31 games, 0.71 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Miedz Legnica.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L).
On the road, Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 4D 10L from 15 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 0.94 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Miedz Legnica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 9D 7L in their last 31 games (1.74 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 4W 10D 17L in their last 31 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Miedz Legnica away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.87 PPG; Miedz Legnica away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Pogon Szczecin 3-2 Miedz Legnica.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 67%, Miedz Legnica 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pogon Szczecin) and 47% (Miedz Legnica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Miedz Legnica in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Miedz Legnica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 60% of Miedz Legnica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 47% of Miedz Legnica's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Miedz Legnica 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Miedz Legnica 3-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.93 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.99 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Miedz Legnica outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 1.24 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 58% | Draw 23% | Miedz Legnica 18%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 58%, Miedz Legnica 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.