Pogon Szczecin 4-2 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera plays host to Pogon Szczecin versus ŁKS Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 22). Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

ŁKS Łódź's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

ŁKS Łódź's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 9L across their last 9 road games (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.50 PPG lead over ŁKS Łódź (1.80 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, ŁKS Łódź edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Pogon Szczecin 0–1 ŁKS Łódź — a ŁKS Łódź win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

ŁKS Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 45% versus ŁKS Łódź 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | ŁKS Łódź 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.31 xG and ŁKS Łódź 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.249 / defence 1.218 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.731 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.239. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pogon Szczecin's projected output up. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ŁKS Łódź's projected output up. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 55 games and ŁKS Łódź's last 20.

Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 21% | ŁKS Łódź 16%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.58 | Draw 4.77 | ŁKS Łódź 6.37. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.31 / 1.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and ŁKS Łódź's last 9 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 70% (last 10 home games) | ŁKS Łódź 44% (last 9 away games).

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