Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera plays host to Pogon Szczecin versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Korona Kielce (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Korona Kielce away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.10 for Korona Kielce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 58% versus Korona Kielce 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Korona Kielce 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.16 xG and Korona Kielce 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.963 / defence 1.229 | Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 0.913. Data: 40 Pogon Szczecin games / 40 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 30%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Korona Kielce 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Korona Kielce 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.16 / Korona Kielce 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.963 / def 1.229 | Korona Kielce attack 0.884 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.339 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Korona Kielce xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 38% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (0.96) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.88x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.13
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.15
0.99
Korona Kielce xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.99 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 9D 12L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.15 PPG from 40 outings (12W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (3W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.08 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Korona Kielce away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.85 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 60%, Korona Kielce 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Korona Kielce). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 60% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Korona Kielce's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Korona Kielce 3-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.16 xG and Korona Kielce 0.99 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 32% | Korona Kielce 30%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Korona Kielce 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.