Pogon Szczecin 1-4 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.50 PPG lead over Gornik Zabrze (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Gornik Zabrze in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 69% and Gornik Zabrze 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 56% | Gornik Zabrze 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.77 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.217 / defence 0.967 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.068 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.201. Data: 49 Pogon Szczecin games / 48 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 26%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Gornik Zabrze 3.85. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Gornik Zabrze 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.77 / Gornik Zabrze 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.217 / def 0.967 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.068 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gornik Zabrze xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 4 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 50% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.22x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (1.07x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.19
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.01
1.24
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
4%
22.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.24 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 48 games, going 24W 16D 8L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.33 PPG from 48 outings (17W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 14W 6D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.58 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Gornik Zabrze in 69%.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 24W 16D 8L in their last 48 games (1.83 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.09 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 1-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Pogon Szczecin, 78% for Gornik Zabrze — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Pogon Szczecin and 74% for Gornik Zabrze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 78% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 74% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Pogon Szczecin 1-4 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.77 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.24 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 50% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 26%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 56%, Gornik Zabrze 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.