Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Miejski — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.
Wisla Plock have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Piast Gliwice. A 1.20 PPG lead over Wisla Plock (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wisla Plock in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Wisla Plock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 31% | Wisla Plock 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.50 xG and Wisla Plock 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.895 / defence 0.938 | Wisla Plock attack 0.967 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.019. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Piast Gliwice games / 61 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 49% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 22%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Plock 4.55. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Piast Gliwice 60% | Wisla Plock 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 49% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.50 / Wisla Plock 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.895 / def 0.938 | Wisla Plock attack 0.967 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Wisla Plock xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 49% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
Record (3 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.90x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.97x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.39
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.42
0.93
Wisla Plock xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
5%
20.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.93 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 15D 21L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.38 PPG from 61 outings (25W 9D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.38 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 11W 7D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (6W 4D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.39 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 25W 15D 21L in their last 61 games (1.48 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 25W 9D 27L in their last 61 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Wisla Plock away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.33 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Wisla Plock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 57%, Wisla Plock 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Piast Gliwice) and 63% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 27% of games; Wisla Plock in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Piast Gliwice's games and 67% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 63% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.50 xG and Wisla Plock 0.93 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Wisla Plock attack 0.97 / defence 1.33, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 49% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 22%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 31%, Wisla Plock 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.48 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.