Piast Gliwice 4-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.00 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Legia Warszawa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 22% | Legia Warszawa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.50 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.932 / defence 1.372 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.719 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.230. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Piast Gliwice games / 9 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 31%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Legia Warszawa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 67% | Legia Warszawa 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.50 / Legia Warszawa 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.932 / def 1.372 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.719 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Legia Warszawa xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice 4 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 44% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-0D-6L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.93x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.72x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 11/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.93
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.71
1.21
Legia Warszawa xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.21 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 3W 0D 6L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.00 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.40 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Piast Gliwice have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 6, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 60%, Legia Warszawa 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Piast Gliwice) and 40% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 40% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 40% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Piast Gliwice run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Legia Warszawa 4-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.50 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.93 / defence 1.37 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 11/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 31%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 22%, Legia Warszawa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.22 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.