Piast Gliwice 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Jagiellonia's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Jagiellonia and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 41% versus Jagiellonia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 31% | Jagiellonia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG and Jagiellonia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.695 / defence 0.814 | Jagiellonia attack 1.084 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.188. Piast Gliwice's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Piast Gliwice games / 39 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 37%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Jagiellonia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 30% | Jagiellonia 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Piast Gliwice 0.95 / Jagiellonia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.695 / def 0.814 | Jagiellonia attack 1.084 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jagiellonia xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 32% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
Record (8 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 5 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.25
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.00
1.05
Jagiellonia xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.2 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.05 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 15D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.87 PPG from 39 outings (21W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 4W 9D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.72 points per game from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.74 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 11W 15D 13L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 21W 10D 8L in their last 39 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.17 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
6
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 39%, Jagiellonia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 61% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG and Jagiellonia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.69 / defence 0.81 against Jagiellonia attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 37%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 31%, Jagiellonia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.