Piast Gliwice 0-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 2 as Piast Gliwice welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Piast Gliwice haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.20 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Gornik Zabrze and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Gornik Zabrze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 32% | Gornik Zabrze 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.890 / defence 0.943 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.878 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.248. Data: 34 Piast Gliwice games / 35 Gornik Zabrze games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 43% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Gornik Zabrze 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 30% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 43% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.32 / Gornik Zabrze 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.890 / def 0.943 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.878 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Gornik Zabrze xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 43% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (8 meetings): Piast Gliwice 3W | Draws 3 | Gornik Zabrze 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.89) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.63
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.36
1.03
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.03 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 11W 12D 11L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. Piast Gliwice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 14W 8D 12L from 34 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.32 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (4W 8D 4L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 5W 4D 7L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.32 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Pre-Season
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 11W 12D 11L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.25 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 44%, Gornik Zabrze 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 38% of games; Gornik Zabrze in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Piast Gliwice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.03 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 43% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 29%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.32 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.