Nieciecza 1-3 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nieciecza at 36%, yet in-form Wisla Plock provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nieciecza and Wisla Plock meet at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Nieciecza (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nieciecza at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Nieciecza are significantly better at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wisla Plock are 0.60 PPG clear of Nieciecza in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nieciecza register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Wisla Plock in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nieciecza lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nieciecza — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nieciecza 68% versus Wisla Plock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nieciecza 50% | Wisla Plock 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.24 xG and Wisla Plock 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.883 / defence 1.301 | Wisla Plock attack 0.843 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.095. Data: 28 Nieciecza games / 28 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 36% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 35%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Plock 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nieciecza are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nieciecza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 70% | Wisla Plock 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 36% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Nieciecza 1.24 / Wisla Plock 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.883 / def 1.301 | Wisla Plock attack 0.843 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Nieciecza (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Wisla Plock xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Nieciecza 1 - 3 Wisla Plock.
Where is Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock part of?
Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 36% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nieciecza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nieciecza and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Wisla Plock?
Record (3 meetings): Nieciecza 1W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Nieciecza and Wisla Plock in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nieciecza's attack rating (0.88) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.84x) against Nieciecza's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nieciecza Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.47
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.44
1.20
Wisla Plock xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.20 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nieciecza come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 7D 15L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nieciecza's home form reads 3W 4D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Attack vs Defence
Nieciecza are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.04 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Current Season
Wisla Plock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 games (0.89 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 11W 9D 8L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Wisla Plock away?
Wisla Plock's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 0.93 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nieciecza have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
1
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Wisla Plock?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Nieciecza 1-3 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Nieciecza, 71% for Wisla Plock — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nieciecza) and 29% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Nieciecza's games and 71% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nieciecza's recent games and 29% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nieciecza and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nieciecza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Nieciecza 1-3 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.24 xG and Wisla Plock 1.20 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.88 / defence 1.30 against Wisla Plock attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 36% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 35%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Wisla Plock 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nieciecza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.