Motor Lublin 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Motor Lublin at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Motor Lublin Arena to take on Motor Lublin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026, 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Motor Lublin have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Motor Lublin Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Motor Lublin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Motor Lublin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Motor Lublin, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Motor Lublin trading profile (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 59% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 52% | Raków Częstochowa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.53 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.949 / defence 0.928 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.193 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.070. Data: 61 Motor Lublin games / 61 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 44% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 28%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Raków Częstochowa lead the H2H ledger, but Motor Lublin carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Motor Lublin at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 60% | Raków Częstochowa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 44% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Motor Lublin 1.53 / Raków Częstochowa 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.949 / def 0.928 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.193 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Raków Częstochowa xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Motor Lublin Arena.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Motor Lublin 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (3 meetings): Motor Lublin 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Motor Lublin's attack rating (0.95) and Raków Częstochowa's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Motor Lublin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.64
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.71
1.19
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.19 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Motor Lublin have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 18D 20L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 31W 15D 15L from 61 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Motor Lublin on 1.43 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Motor Lublin have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (12W 11D 8L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 8D 7L from 31 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.43 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 23W 18D 20L in their last 61 games (1.43 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 15D 15L in their last 61 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.52 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Motor Lublin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Motor Lublin
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 4 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Motor Lublin 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 58%, Raków Częstochowa 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Motor Lublin) and 39% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 45% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 39% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.53 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.19 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 44% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 28%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.43 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.