Motor Lublin 0-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Arena Lublin to take on Motor Lublin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024, 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.24 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.934 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.035. Data: 0 Motor Lublin games / 34 Raków Częstochowa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 36% | Draw 34% | Raków Częstochowa 30%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Raków Częstochowa 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Motor Lublin at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arena Lublin • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 36% | Draw 34% | Raków Częstochowa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Motor Lublin 1.24 / Raków Częstochowa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.934 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Raków Częstochowa xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Arena Lublin.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Motor Lublin 0 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lublin.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 36% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Motor Lublin's attack rating (0.85) and Raków Częstochowa's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Motor Lublin's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.95
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.35
1.11
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.11 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Pre-Season
Raków Częstochowa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Motor Lublin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Motor Lublin
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 4 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Motor Lublin 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Motor Lublin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Motor Lublin 0-2 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.24 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Motor Lublin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 36% | Draw 34% | Raków Częstochowa 30%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.