Motor Lublin 0-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Motor Lublin take on Puszcza Niepołomice.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lublin plays host to Motor Lublin versus Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Motor Lublin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: L W D D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Motor Lublin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Puszcza Niepołomice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.25 for Motor Lublin, 1.30 for Puszcza Niepołomice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Motor Lublin have seen both teams score in just 25% of their matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 25% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Motor Lublin 0% | Puszcza Niepołomice 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 0.94 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.738 / defence 1.224 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.733 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.106. Motor Lublin's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Motor Lublin games / 39 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 31% | Draw 36% | Puszcza Niepołomice 34%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Puszcza Niepołomice 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 25% | Puszcza Niepołomice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Lublin • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 31% | Draw 36% | Puszcza Niepołomice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Motor Lublin 0.94 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.738 / def 1.224 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.733 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Arena Lublin.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Motor Lublin 0 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lublin.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 31% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-W-D-D. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Motor Lublin's attack at 0.74x the league average against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.73x) against Motor Lublin's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 4/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
36%
2.79
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
1.93
0.99
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.4 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 0.99 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Motor Lublin come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Motor Lublin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Puszcza Niepołomice sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.25 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Motor Lublin are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking output running into Motor Lublin's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Motor Lublin have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 75%.
Defensively: Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Early Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Motor Lublin or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Motor Lublin
1
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 2 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Motor Lublin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 25%, Puszcza Niepołomice 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Motor Lublin) and 75% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Motor Lublin have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 75% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Motor Lublin vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 75% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Motor Lublin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 6, as Motor Lublin and Puszcza Niepołomice drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 0.94 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.99 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Motor Lublin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.74 / defence 1.22 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.73 / defence 0.94, drawn from 4/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 31% | Draw 36% | Puszcza Niepołomice 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 0%, Puszcza Niepołomice 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.25 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Puszcza Niepołomice managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.