Miedz Legnica 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 23 as Miedz Legnica welcome Jagiellonia to Stadion im. Orła Białego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Miedz Legnica stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Miedz Legnica have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 0W 8D 2L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Miedz Legnica carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Miedz Legnica register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jagiellonia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Jagiellonia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Miedz Legnica in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Miedz Legnica 64% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Miedz Legnica 54% | Jagiellonia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 1.06 xG and Jagiellonia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.928 / defence 1.170 | Jagiellonia attack 0.836 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.117. Data: 22 Miedz Legnica games / 56 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 34% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Miedz Legnica (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Miedz Legnica 60% | Jagiellonia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 34% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Miedz Legnica 1.06 / Jagiellonia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.928 / def 1.170 | Jagiellonia attack 0.836 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Jagiellonia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia?
Miedz Legnica 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 34% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Miedz Legnica 0W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Miedz Legnica's attack rating (0.93) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Miedz Legnica's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.39
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.15
1.09
Jagiellonia xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.09 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Miedz Legnica have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 4W 6D 12L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia's form line: 5W 9D 8L from 22 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Miedz Legnica on 0.82 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Miedz Legnica have posted 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 0W 8D 3L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Miedz Legnica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Miedz Legnica at home or Jagiellonia away?
Miedz Legnica's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Miedz Legnica at home: 1.18 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Miedz Legnica
1
Draws
1
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Jagiellonia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Miedz Legnica 1-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Miedz Legnica 64%, Jagiellonia 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Miedz Legnica) and 27% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Miedz Legnica have failed to score in 27% of games; Jagiellonia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Miedz Legnica's games and 64% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Miedz Legnica's recent games and 27% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Miedz Legnica and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 1.06 xG and Jagiellonia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Jagiellonia attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 34% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 54%, Jagiellonia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Miedz Legnica 0.82 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.