Legia Warszawa 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Legia Warszawa (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Legia Warszawa face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Legia Warszawa versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Legia Warszawa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Legia Warszawa's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Zaglebie Lubin's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Zaglebie Lubin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Legia Warszawa have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 5 meetings, with Zaglebie Lubin managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 56% versus Zaglebie Lubin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.51 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.937 / defence 1.010 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.157 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.085. Data: 34 Legia Warszawa games / 34 Zaglebie Lubin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.51 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.937 / def 1.010 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.157 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Zaglebie Lubin xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 41% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (5 meetings): Legia Warszawa 5W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.94x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.16x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
41%
2.47
30%
3.36
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.77
1.27
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.27 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 34 games, going 16W 11D 7L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. Legia Warszawa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.38 PPG from 34 outings (13W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.38 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 8W 6D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.26 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Pre-Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 16W 11D 7L in their last 34 games (1.74 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 8D 13L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.76 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 9, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 59%, Zaglebie Lubin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Legia Warszawa) and 59% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Legia Warszawa's games and 53% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.51 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Zaglebie Lubin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.74 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.