Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadion Wojska Polskiego — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Wisla Plock have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Legia Warszawa's 2.40 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Wisla Plock's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 59% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Legia Warszawa 41% | Wisla Plock 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.40 xG and Wisla Plock 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.283 / defence 0.796 | Wisla Plock attack 0.900 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.297. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Legia Warszawa games / 39 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 68% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 11%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Wisla Plock 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 68% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 57% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.40 / Wisla Plock 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.283 / def 0.796 | Wisla Plock attack 0.900 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Wisla Plock xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 68% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.90x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.71
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.33
0.93
Wisla Plock xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
9%
11.07
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
1%
102.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.93 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 16D 9L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (13W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.28 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 10W 7D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 14W 16D 9L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Wisla Plock away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.85 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Wisla Plock 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Legia Warszawa) and 50% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Legia Warszawa's games and 70% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 50% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.