Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Legia Warszawa welcome Wisla Krakow to Stadion Wojska Polskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadion Wojska Polskiego — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 1.57. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.83 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.57. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 1 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 71% and Wisla Krakow 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 43% | Wisla Krakow 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.60 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.278 / defence 0.800 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.063 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.278. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Legia Warszawa games / 6 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 68% | Draw 20% | Wisla Krakow 12%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Wisla Krakow 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.60 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 68% | Draw 20% | Wisla Krakow 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 63% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.60 / Wisla Krakow 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.278 / def 0.800 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.063 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Wisla Krakow xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 18:15 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 68% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.28x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
68%
1.47
20%
4.94
12%
8.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.68
1.09
Wisla Krakow xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
8.44
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
7%
13.41
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
1%
113.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.09 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 3D 0L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Wisla Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Krakow have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.86 scored and 1.57 conceded. Wisla Krakow's attacking output running into Legia Warszawa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Wisla Krakow in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.33 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2022, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Legia Warszawa at 67%, Wisla Krakow at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Legia Warszawa and 67% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Legia Warszawa's games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 67% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.