Legia Warszawa 0-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 2W 6D 2L at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.10 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 55% versus Radomiak Radom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Radomiak Radom 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.91 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.947 / defence 0.849 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.942 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.157. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Legia Warszawa games / 64 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 59% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 16%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 70% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 59% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.91 / Radomiak Radom 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.947 / def 0.849 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.942 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Radomiak Radom xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 59% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (5 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.95) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.01
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.83
0.93
Radomiak Radom xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
41.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.93 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 32W 20D 12L from 64 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 27L across 64 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 19W 11D 2L from 32 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 12W 7D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 32W 20D 12L in their last 64 games (1.81 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.12 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Radomiak Radom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 62%, Radomiak Radom 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Legia Warszawa) and 53% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 41% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 53% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Legia Warszawa 0-3 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.91 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.93 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.94 / defence 1.32, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 59% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 16%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Radomiak Radom 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.