Legia Warszawa 1-2 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Legia Warszawa, 1.80 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Legia Warszawa 3W, Piast Gliwice 2W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 53% versus Piast Gliwice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 47% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.018 / defence 0.894 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.932 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.062. Data: 36 Legia Warszawa games / 36 Piast Gliwice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 4.00. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 60% | Piast Gliwice 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.28 / Piast Gliwice 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.018 / def 0.894 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.932 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Piast Gliwice xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 2 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 46% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Record (6 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.02) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.93x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.45
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.17
0.89
Piast Gliwice xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.89 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 18W 11D 7L from 36 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 9L across 36 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 9W 6D 3L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 2W 10D 6L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Piast Gliwice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 11D 7L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 10W 17D 9L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.83 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Piast Gliwice have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
6
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 56%, Piast Gliwice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Legia Warszawa) and 22% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 22% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Legia Warszawa 1-2 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.89 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 47%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.