Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin meet at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Zaglebie Lubin are 1.27 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.60 vs 0.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Zaglebie Lubin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lechia Gdansk lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 67% versus Zaglebie Lubin 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lechia Gdansk 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.04 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.704 / defence 1.263 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.999 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.100. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Lechia Gdansk games / 37 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 28% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lechia Gdansk 67% | Zaglebie Lubin 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 28% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.04 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.704 / def 1.263 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.999 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 28% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (4 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 2W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.00x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
28%
3.61
28%
3.59
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.43
1.39
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
7%
14.47
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.39 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zaglebie Lubin's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Zaglebie Lubin are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lechia Gdansk.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Lechia Gdansk or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won 6-2 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 67%, Zaglebie Lubin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Lechia Gdansk and 33% for Zaglebie Lubin.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 33%; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 33% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 4, as Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.04 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.70 / defence 1.26 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 28% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 33%, Zaglebie Lubin 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lechia Gdansk conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.