Lechia Gdansk 1-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Lechia Gdansk take on Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 1.50 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lechia Gdansk, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 47% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 51% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.75 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.794 / defence 0.929 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.792 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.106. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Radomiak Radom's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Lechia Gdansk games / 55 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 29% | Draw 38% | Radomiak Radom 33%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Radomiak Radom 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Lechia Gdansk's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.57 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 30% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 29% | Draw 38% | Radomiak Radom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 31% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.75 / Radomiak Radom 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.794 / def 0.929 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.792 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Radomiak Radom xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 29% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.79) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.41
38%
2.64
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
1.57
0.81
Radomiak Radom xG
3.41
29%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 17.0 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.81 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 22W 13D 20L from 55 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 16L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.44 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 15W 7D 5L from 27 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 8W 11D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.16 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 22W 13D 20L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 20D 16L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.93 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Radomiak Radom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
6
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 41%, Radomiak Radom 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lechia Gdansk) and 37% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 33%; Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 41% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 37% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 1-3 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.75 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.81 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.79 / defence 0.93 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.79 / defence 0.77, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 29% | Draw 38% | Radomiak Radom 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 51%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.44 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.