Lech Poznan 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lech Poznan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Poznań to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's home record at Stadion Poznań: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lech Poznan 1.50 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lech Poznan, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 43% versus Radomiak Radom 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 48% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.02 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 0.838 / defence 0.842 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.833 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.171. Data: 44 Lech Poznan games / 45 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 39% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 29%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 40% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Poznań • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 39% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Lech Poznan 1.02 / Radomiak Radom 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 0.838 / def 0.842 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.833 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Radomiak Radom xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadion Poznań.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Poznań.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 39% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Record (2 meetings): Lech Poznan 0W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
39%
2.55
32%
3.10
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
1.84
0.82
Radomiak Radom xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.82 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 26W 11D 7L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 15W 16D 13L from 44 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 2.14 PPG from 21 outings (14W 3D 4L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 6W 8D 7L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.20 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 26W 11D 7L in their last 44 games (2.02 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.14 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lech Poznan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lech Poznan
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 33%, Radomiak Radom 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lech Poznan) and 38% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 43% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 38% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Stadion Poznań, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.02 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.82 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 0.84 / defence 0.84 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 39% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 29%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 48%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.