ŁKS Łódź 3-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ŁKS Łódź host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, ŁKS Łódź have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ŁKS Łódź have posted 2W 1D 3L at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz — 1.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 1W 8D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 2W 7D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Piast Gliwice's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of ŁKS Łódź's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 36% versus Piast Gliwice 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (ŁKS Łódź 57% | Piast Gliwice 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 0.81 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.705 / defence 1.511 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.819 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.181. ŁKS Łódź's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 ŁKS Łódź games / 48 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 20% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 52%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Piast Gliwice 1.92. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: ŁKS Łódź 33% | Piast Gliwice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 20% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG ŁKS Łódź 0.81 / Piast Gliwice 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.705 / def 1.511 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.819 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Piast Gliwice xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
ŁKS Łódź 3 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 20% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-8D-1L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
ŁKS Łódź's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
20%
4.98
28%
3.54
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.27
1.46
Piast Gliwice xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
21.47
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.46 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ŁKS Łódź's recent record stands at 2W 1D 11L from 14 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 2W 10D 2L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Piast Gliwice by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ŁKS Łódź have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 0W 5D 1L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 0.79 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 1D 11L in their last 14 games (0.50 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 10D 2L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Piast Gliwice away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.17 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 0.83 PPG.
Have ŁKS Łódź or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
1
Draws
1
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Piast Gliwice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Piast Gliwice 4-0 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 33%, Piast Gliwice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for ŁKS Łódź and 0% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 50% of games; Piast Gliwice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 67% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 0% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź and Piast Gliwice finished level at 3-3 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 0.81 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.46 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.70 / defence 1.51 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.82 / defence 0.78, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 20% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 52%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 57%, Piast Gliwice 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.