Korona Kielce 1-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 18 as Korona Kielce welcome Wisla Plock to Exbud Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 December 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce at Exbud Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Korona Kielce are significantly better at Exbud Arena than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 1W 5D 1L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Korona Kielce at 1.20 PPG versus Wisla Plock's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Korona Kielce, 2 for Wisla Plock and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Korona Kielce in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 41% versus Wisla Plock 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Korona Kielce 35% | Wisla Plock 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.12 xG and Wisla Plock 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.840 / defence 0.992 | Wisla Plock attack 0.830 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.193. Data: 51 Korona Kielce games / 17 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 37% | Draw 34% | Wisla Plock 30%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Wisla Plock 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Korona Kielce are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Korona Kielce 40% | Wisla Plock 86% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Exbud Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 37% | Draw 34% | Wisla Plock 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Korona Kielce 1.12 / Wisla Plock 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.840 / def 0.992 | Wisla Plock attack 0.830 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Wisla Plock xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Exbud Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock?
Korona Kielce 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Exbud Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock part of?
Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 37% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock?
Record (3 meetings): Korona Kielce 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.84x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
37%
2.73
34%
2.96
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.10
0.98
Wisla Plock xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 0.98 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Korona Kielce come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 5D 6L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (7W 8D 2L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Korona Kielce on 1.35 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Korona Kielce's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Korona Kielce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (1W 5D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Korona Kielce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.18 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Wisla Plock in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 7W 8D 2L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Wisla Plock away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.86 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock?
From 5 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-2 Korona Kielce.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 29%, Wisla Plock 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Korona Kielce and 14% for Wisla Plock.
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Korona Kielce's games and 86% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Korona Kielce vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 14% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.12 xG and Wisla Plock 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 37% | Draw 34% | Wisla Plock 30%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 35%, Wisla Plock 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.35 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.