Jagiellonia 1-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Jagiellonia, 1.50 for Widzew Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Jagiellonia 2W, Widzew Łódź 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 69% and Widzew Łódź 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 77% | Widzew Łódź 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.73 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.312 / defence 1.119 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.098 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.120. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Jagiellonia games / 40 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 29%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Widzew Łódź 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Jagiellonia 1.73 / Widzew Łódź 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.312 / def 1.119 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.098 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Widzew Łódź xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia 1 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 44% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Record (4 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.31) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.10x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.71
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.11
1.38
Widzew Łódź xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.38 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia come into this having played 39 games, going 21W 9D 9L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.38 PPG from 39 outings (15W 9D 15L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jagiellonia's home form reads 14W 3D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Widzew Łódź in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 21W 9D 9L in their last 39 games (1.85 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.25 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 55% for Jagiellonia, 80% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jagiellonia and 55% for Widzew Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jagiellonia's games and 80% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jagiellonia's matches and 55% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.73 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.38 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.31 / defence 1.12 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 29%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 77%, Widzew Łódź 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.