Jagiellonia 6-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ŁKS Łódź make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ŁKS Łódź have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Jagiellonia. A 0.90 PPG lead over ŁKS Łódź (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jagiellonia, 0 for ŁKS Łódź and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
ŁKS Łódź — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 72% and ŁKS Łódź 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 80% | ŁKS Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.21 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.287 / defence 0.988 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.778 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.142. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Jagiellonia games / 25 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 66% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 12%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | ŁKS Łódź 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | ŁKS Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 66% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Jagiellonia 2.21 / ŁKS Łódź 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.287 / def 0.988 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.778 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
ŁKS Łódź xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź?
Jagiellonia 6 - 0 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 66% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 1 | ŁKS Łódź 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against ŁKS Łódź's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — ŁKS Łódź's attack (0.78x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.48
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.09
0.88
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
11%
9.10
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
1%
76.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.88 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 14W 6D 5L from 25 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ŁKS Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 16L across 25 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 1.24 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 9W 2D 1L from 12 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
ŁKS Łódź's away record stands at 1W 0D 11L across 12 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.84 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 14W 6D 5L in their last 25 games (1.92 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 4W 5D 16L in their last 25 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.42 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Jagiellonia 6-0 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, ŁKS Łódź 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jagiellonia and 58% for ŁKS Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; ŁKS Łódź in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 42% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jagiellonia's matches and 58% of ŁKS Łódź's.
Do Jagiellonia and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 6-0 hammering of ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat ŁKS Łódź 6-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.21 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.88 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ŁKS Łódź landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.29 / defence 0.99 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 66% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 12%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 80%, ŁKS Łódź 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.68. Form held, and they took the win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.