GKS Katowice 1-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GKS Katowice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion ul. Bukowa to face GKS Katowice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 July 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 1.42 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.034 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.087. Data: 0 GKS Katowice games / 34 Radomiak Radom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 38% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 32%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GKS Katowice at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GKS Katowice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion ul. Bukowa • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 38% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG GKS Katowice 1.42 / Radomiak Radom 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.034 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Radomiak Radom xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Stadion ul. Bukowa.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
GKS Katowice 1 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion ul. Bukowa.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 38% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GKS Katowice's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.03x) against GKS Katowice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.33
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
2.72
1.29
Radomiak Radom xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 1.29 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Pre-Season
Radomiak Radom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GKS Katowice have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
From 5 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat GKS Katowice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat GKS Katowice 1-2 at Stadion ul. Bukowa, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.42 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.29 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 38% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 32%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.