Cracovia Krakow 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 6L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 64% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 57% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 2.06 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.042 / defence 1.181 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.825 / defence 1.585. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.218. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.585 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Cracovia Krakow games / 14 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 57% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 22%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Legia Warszawa 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 71% | Legia Warszawa 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 57% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Cracovia Krakow 2.06 / Legia Warszawa 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.042 / def 1.181 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.825 / def 1.585 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Legia Warszawa xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 57% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
57%
1.74
21%
4.74
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.24
1.19
Legia Warszawa xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
3%
36.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.19 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 4D 5L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 0.86 PPG from 14 outings (4W 0D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Cracovia Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.07 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 0D 10L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.83 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 67%, Legia Warszawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Cracovia Krakow) and 50% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 50% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 2.06 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.19 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.82 / defence 1.58, drawn from 16/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 57% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 22%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 57%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.