Viking 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 7W 1D 2L at SR-Bank Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Viking register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 3–1 with Viking winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 61% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.70 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.288 / defence 1.189 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.039 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.393. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 2.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Viking games / 57 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 59% | Draw 18% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 24%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.69 | Draw 5.56 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Viking (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.70 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.42 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 59% | Draw 18% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 77% | xG Viking 2.70 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.288 / def 1.189 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.039 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Viking (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.70
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking 2 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 59% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 24% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (4 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.29x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.04x) against Viking's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (6.8%), 2-2 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
59%
1.70
18%
5.62
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.70
Viking xG
Total xG
4.42
1.72
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.27
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
7%
14.91
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
2%
63.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Viking and 1.72 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 4.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 25W 12D 20L from 57 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 23L across 57 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Viking against 1.44 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 10W 5D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.93 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 25W 12D 20L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 23L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Viking's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.75 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Viking, 68% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Viking and 68% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Viking's games and 68% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Viking's matches and 68% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.70 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.72 xG, a combined 4.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.29 / defence 1.19 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.04 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 59% | Draw 18% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 24%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 61%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.53 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.