Valerenga 0-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Valerenga (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Valerenga face Stromsgodset.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to Valerenga versus Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 11 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valerenga have posted 7W 1D 2L at Intility Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Intility Arena. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Valerenga's favour (1.10 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Valerenga, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Stromsgodset — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 4–0 with Valerenga winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Valerenga and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Valerenga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 63% versus Stromsgodset 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 60% | Stromsgodset 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.00 xG and Stromsgodset 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.025 / defence 1.282 | Stromsgodset attack 1.007 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.234. Data: 39 Valerenga games / 39 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 46% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 29%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 3.45. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates are neutral: Valerenga 40% | Stromsgodset 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 46% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Valerenga 2.00 / Stromsgodset 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.025 / def 1.282 | Stromsgodset attack 1.007 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Stromsgodset xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Valerenga vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Valerenga 0 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Valerenga vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Stromsgodset part of?
Valerenga vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 46% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Valerenga and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stromsgodset?
Record (6 meetings): Valerenga 4W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Valerenga and Stromsgodset in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (1.01x) against Valerenga's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
46%
2.19
25%
3.99
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.59
1.59
Stromsgodset xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
4%
25.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.59 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valerenga's recent record stands at 24W 17D 19L from 60 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 27L across 60 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Valerenga against 1.15 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 16W 9D 5L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 3W 9D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.45 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Stromsgodset away?
Valerenga's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.90 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Valerenga
1
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Valerenga 2-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Stromsgodset?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 60%, Stromsgodset 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Valerenga) and 53% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Valerenga's recent matches and 43% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valerenga vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 53% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Valerenga and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Valerenga 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Valerenga 0-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.00 xG and Stromsgodset 1.59 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valerenga fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.02 / defence 1.28 against Stromsgodset attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 46% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 29%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 60%, Stromsgodset 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.48 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.