Tromso 3-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 6W 3D 1L at Alfheim Stadion — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tromso are significantly better at Alfheim Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.80 PPG clear of Tromso in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tromso have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 61% versus Bodo/Glimt 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 47% | Bodo/Glimt 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.49 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.075 / defence 0.968 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.316 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.345. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Tromso games / 51 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 34% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 43%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Bodo/Glimt 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 70% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 34% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Tromso 1.49 / Bodo/Glimt 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.075 / def 0.968 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.316 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Bodo/Glimt xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Tromso 3 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 34% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Tromso and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (2 meetings): Tromso 0W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.07x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.32x) against Tromso's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
34%
2.97
23%
4.30
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.21
1.71
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.44
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Tromso and 1.71 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 20D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.04 PPG from 51 outings (30W 14D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tromso's home form reads 9W 9D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.00 points per game from 25 outings (15W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 14W 20D 17L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 30W 14D 7L in their last 51 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.44 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Tromso or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tromso
3
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 60%, Bodo/Glimt 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Tromso) and 52% (Bodo/Glimt).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Tromso's games and 52% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Tromso's recent games and 52% of Bodo/Glimt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tromso defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Bodo/Glimt 3-2 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.49 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.71 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.32 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 34% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 43%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Tromso win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 47%, Bodo/Glimt 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Tromso winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.