Stromsgodset vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Stromsgodset welcome Stabaek to Marienlyst Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 6W 2D 2L at Marienlyst Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Stromsgodset) versus 0.90 (Stabaek). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stromsgodset, 2 for Stabaek and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 56% versus Stabaek 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 62% | Stabaek 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.80 xG and Stabaek 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.337 / defence 0.749 | Stabaek attack 1.048 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Stromsgodset carry an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stromsgodset's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Stromsgodset games / 55 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 75% | Draw 17% | Stabaek 9%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Stabaek 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 75% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 50% | Stabaek 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 75% | Draw 17% | Stabaek 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 59% | xG Stromsgodset 2.80 / Stabaek 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.337 / def 0.749 | Stabaek attack 1.048 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Stabaek xG
59%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Stabaek kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Stabaek kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek part of?
Stromsgodset vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 75% chance of winning, Stabaek a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stromsgodset and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
Record (4 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 2W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Stabaek in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.80. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
75%
1.34
17%
6.01
9%
11.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.75
0.95
Stabaek xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
11.42
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
6%
16.49
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
1%
188.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.95 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 16W 16D 23L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 14W 18D 23L from 55 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.16 PPG, Stabaek on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 6W 9D 12L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.27 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 16D 23L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 14W 18D 23L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Stabaek away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.44 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stromsgodset have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2020, when Stabaek won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Stabaek have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 63%, Stabaek 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stromsgodset and 74% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Stromsgodset's games and 67% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 74% of Stabaek's.
Do Stromsgodset and Stabaek tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.80 xG and Stabaek 0.95 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against Stabaek attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 75% | Draw 17% | Stabaek 9%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Stabaek 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.16 PPG, Stabaek 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.