Stromsgodset 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Stromsgodset are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stromsgodset, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2022, ended 1–5 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 48% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 59% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.09 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.022 / defence 0.948 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.278 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.339. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sarpsborg 08 FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Stromsgodset games / 46 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.33. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Stromsgodset 2.09 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.022 / def 0.948 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.278 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Stromsgodset 3 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 49% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.02) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
49%
2.05
21%
4.75
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.71
1.62
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
12%
8.06
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
4%
26.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.62 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 13D 18L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 17W 7D 22L from 46 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.26 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 1D 13L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 7D 22L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.77 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Stromsgodset won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 54%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Stromsgodset and 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Stromsgodset's games and 68% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Stromsgodset's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.09 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.62 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.28 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 59%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.26 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.