Start 0-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Start vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Rosenborg travel to Sparebanken Sør Arena to take on Start. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 July 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Start stand at 0W 3D 4L from 7 Eliteserien matches — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Start have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Start have posted 0W 2D 2L at Sparebanken Sør Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 0.86. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Rosenborg have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 1.14 PPG ahead (1.57 vs 0.43), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Start in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 57% versus Rosenborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 57% | Rosenborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 0.88 xG and Rosenborg 2.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.837 / defence 1.585 | Rosenborg attack 1.013 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.486. Data: 7 Start games / 7 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 12% | Draw 17% | Rosenborg 71%. Fair-value odds: Start 8.33 | Draw 5.88 | Rosenborg 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Start 75% | Rosenborg 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 12% | Draw 17% | Rosenborg 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 53% | xG Start 0.88 / Rosenborg 2.39 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.837 / def 1.585 | Rosenborg attack 1.013 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Start xG
Expected Goals
2.39
Rosenborg xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Rosenborg kick off?
Start vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 16 July 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Rosenborg?
Start 0 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Start vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Rosenborg part of?
Start vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Start a 12% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 71% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Start and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Start and Rosenborg in?
Start (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.14 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Start's attack rating (0.84) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Start's defence, projects 2.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
12%
8.25
17%
5.83
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Start xG
Total xG
3.27
2.39
Rosenborg xG
8.25
12%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
9%
10.88
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
1%
89.78
29%
3.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Start and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Start and 2.39 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Start's recent record stands at 0W 3D 4L from 7 games, a 0.43 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Start, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rosenborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Start have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — Rosenborg travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Start are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.57 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Early Season
Rosenborg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Start have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 0.33 PPG; Rosenborg away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Start or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Start have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Start and Rosenborg runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2026, when Rosenborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Start's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Start
1
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Rosenborg?
From 3 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Rosenborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Start and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Start 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Start and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Rosenborg see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 67%, Rosenborg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Start and 67% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%; Start have failed to score in 33% of games; Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Start's recent matches and 33% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Start vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Start's matches and 67% of Rosenborg's.
Do Start and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Start's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Start and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 0.88 xG and Rosenborg 2.39 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Start fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.84 / defence 1.58 against Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 0.86, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 12% | Draw 17% | Rosenborg 71%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 57%, Rosenborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.