Start 2-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Start host Molde at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.51 xG and Molde 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 1.024 / defence 1.231 | Molde attack 1.161 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.364. Data: 2 Start games / 2 Molde games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Start 30% | Draw 22% | Molde 48%. Fair-value odds: Start 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Molde 2.08. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 30% | Draw 22% | Molde 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Start 1.51 / Molde 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 1.024 / def 1.231 | Molde attack 1.161 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Molde (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Molde xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Molde kick off?
Start vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 24 June 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Molde?
Start 2 - 3 Molde.
Where is Start vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Molde part of?
Start vs Molde is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Start a 30% chance of winning, Molde a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Start and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Start and Molde in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Start's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Start's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
30%
3.33
22%
4.57
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Start xG
Total xG
3.46
1.95
Molde xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
14%
7.03
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
4%
23.39
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Start and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Start and 1.95 for Molde, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Pre-Season
Molde
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2020, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Start's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Start
1
Draws
2
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Molde?
From 3 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Molde have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Start and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Start 1-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Start and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Start 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Start 2-3 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.51 xG and Molde 1.95 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Molde outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against Molde attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Start 30% | Draw 22% | Molde 48%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.