Start vs Ham-Kam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Start host Ham-Kam at in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Start stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Start have posted 2W 3D 4L at — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Start at 0.90 PPG versus Ham-Kam's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Start have won 0, Ham-Kam 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Ham-Kam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Start in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Start 67% and Ham-Kam 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Start 61% | Ham-Kam 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.35 xG and Ham-Kam 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.753 / defence 1.186 | Ham-Kam attack 0.846 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Start's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Start games / 48 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 36% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 39%. Fair-value odds: Start 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Start 56% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 36% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Start 1.35 / Ham-Kam 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.753 / def 1.186 | Ham-Kam attack 0.846 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Ham-Kam xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Start vs Ham-Kam is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026.
What competition is Start vs Ham-Kam part of?
Start vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Start a 36% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Start and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Start and Ham-Kam in?
Start (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Start's attack rating (0.75) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Start's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
36%
2.82
26%
3.90
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Start xG
Total xG
2.78
1.43
Ham-Kam xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Start and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Start and 1.43 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Start come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 4D 11L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Start — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Start's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
The Goals Picture
Start are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.44 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Start have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Ham-Kam away?
Start's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.00 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Start and Ham-Kam runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Start
0
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Ham-Kam?
From 1 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Start and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-1 Start.
Who has won more matches between Start and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 56%, Ham-Kam 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Start and 78% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start have failed to score in 33% of games; Ham-Kam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Start's games and 56% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Start vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Start's matches and 78% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Start and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.