Stabaek 2-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 8 as Stabaek welcome Valerenga to Nadderud Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stabaek haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valerenga — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valerenga away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Stabaek) versus 1.10 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stabaek register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Valerenga in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stabaek, 2 for Valerenga and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 60% versus Valerenga 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 73% | Valerenga 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.28 xG and Valerenga 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.842 / defence 0.849 | Valerenga attack 1.138 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.187. Data: 7 Stabaek games / 37 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 38% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 31%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Valerenga 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 60% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 38% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Stabaek 1.28 / Valerenga 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.842 / def 0.849 | Valerenga attack 1.138 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Valerenga xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Valerenga kick off?
Stabaek vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Stabaek 2 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Stabaek vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Valerenga part of?
Stabaek vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 38% chance of winning, Valerenga a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stabaek and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Record (4 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.28
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.43
1.15
Valerenga xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.15 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stabaek's recent record stands at 6W 7D 17L from 30 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. Stabaek haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 12L across 30 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 4W 3D 8L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Stabaek are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.73 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Valerenga away?
Stabaek's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.00 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stabaek's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 47%, Valerenga 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stabaek and 60% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 40% of games; Valerenga in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Stabaek's games and 67% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stabaek's matches and 60% of Valerenga's.
Do Stabaek and Valerenga tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stabaek edge out Valerenga 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Valerenga 2-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.28 xG and Valerenga 1.15 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.84 / defence 0.85 against Valerenga attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 38% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 31%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 73%, Valerenga 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Stabaek winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.