Stabaek 0-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 36%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Nadderud Stadion to face Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Stabaek are significantly better at Nadderud Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Brann are 1.40 PPG clear of Stabaek in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stabaek lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 1–4 with Brann winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 47% versus Brann 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 58% | Brann 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.17 xG and Brann 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.665 / defence 0.937 | Brann attack 0.942 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.305. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Stabaek games / 20 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 35%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Brann 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 33% | Brann 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Stabaek 1.17 / Brann 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.665 / def 0.937 | Brann attack 0.942 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.750 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Brann xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Brann kick off?
Stabaek vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Brann?
Stabaek 0 - 1 Brann.
Where is Stabaek vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Brann part of?
Stabaek vs Brann is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 36% chance of winning, Brann a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stabaek and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Brann?
Record (5 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 2 | Brann 2W.
What form are Stabaek and Brann in?
Stabaek (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.67) and Brann's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.94x) against Stabaek's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.55
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.32
1.15
Brann xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.15 for Brann, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Stabaek have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 4W 4D 11L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 10W 3D 6L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.74 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Brann in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Brann have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Brann away?
Stabaek's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.33 PPG; Brann away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Brann have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 4-1 on 16 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
2
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Brann?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Brann have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 33%, Brann 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stabaek) and 56% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Stabaek's recent matches and 56% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stabaek's recent games and 56% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Brann tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Brann in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.17 xG and Brann 1.15 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.67 / defence 0.94 against Brann attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 35%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 58%, Brann 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.