Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 46%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Viking away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Viking arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% versus Viking 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.39 xG and Viking 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.579 / defence 0.799 | Viking attack 0.985 / defence 1.461. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.188. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.579 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.461 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 38 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 30% | Viking 24%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Viking 4.17. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Viking 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 30% | Viking 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.39 / Viking 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.579 / def 0.799 | Viking attack 0.985 / def 1.461 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Viking xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 25 June 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 46% chance of winning, Viking a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.58) and Viking's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.98x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.34
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
Viking xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.94 for Viking, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 10L across 30 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.47 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Viking away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Viking away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Viking in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, Viking 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games; Viking in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 53% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.39 xG and Viking 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Viking outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.58 / defence 0.80 against Viking attack 0.98 / defence 1.46, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 30% | Viking 24%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, Viking 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG, Viking 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.