Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Viking arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% versus Viking 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Viking 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.72 xG and Viking 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.931 / defence 0.985 | Viking attack 0.874 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.340. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 24 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 25% | Viking 25%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Viking 4.00. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 20% | Viking 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 25% | Viking 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.72 / Viking 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.931 / def 0.985 | Viking attack 0.874 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Viking xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 50% chance of winning, Viking a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.93) and Viking's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.87x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.94
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.88
1.15
Viking xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
4%
22.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.15 for Viking, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 8W 4D 12L from 24 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 9L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.38 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 6W 1D 5L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Sarpsborg 08 FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Viking's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.75 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Viking have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Viking away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.58 PPG; Viking away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Viking in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 25%, Viking 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 67% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games; Viking in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 50% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Viking in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.72 xG and Viking 1.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Viking attack 0.87 / defence 1.33, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 25% | Viking 25%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%, Viking 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.17 PPG, Viking 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.