Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.00 for Lillestrom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) — Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Lillestrom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 3 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 Lillestrom — a Sarpsborg 08 FF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% and Lillestrom 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Lillestrom 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sarpsborg 08 FF surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Lillestrom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.86 xG and Lillestrom 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.877 / defence 1.092 | Lillestrom attack 0.944 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.374. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 35 games and Lillestrom's last 35.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 23% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 50%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.36 | Draw 3.69 | Lillestrom 2.00. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 90% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 6 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 23% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.86 / Lillestrom 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.877 / def 1.092 | Lillestrom attack 0.944 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Lillestrom xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 6) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 23% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.94x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 35 games and Lillestrom's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
23%
4.36
27%
3.69
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.28
1.42
Lillestrom xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
17.98
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.5 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.42 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 10D 26L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.60 PPG from 60 outings (29W 9D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.60 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 14W 5D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (11W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Lillestrom away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.57 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Lillestrom have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 60% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 63% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 60% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 63% of Lillestrom's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 70% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat Lillestrom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Lillestrom 1-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.86 xG and Lillestrom 1.42 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Lillestrom attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 23% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 50%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 PPG, Lillestrom 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.