Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 3 for Ham-Kam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% versus Ham-Kam 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Ham-Kam 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.70 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.989 / defence 1.141 | Ham-Kam attack 0.769 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.322. Data: 35 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 35 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.70 / Ham-Kam 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.989 / def 1.141 | Ham-Kam attack 0.769 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ham-Kam xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 48% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
Record (6 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 3W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.99) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.77x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.55
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.85
1.16
Ham-Kam xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
4%
22.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.16 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 12D 26L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.12 PPG from 60 outings (18W 13D 29L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.12 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 12W 5D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.22 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 22W 12D 26L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Ham-Kam away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.37 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 1-7 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%, Ham-Kam 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 57% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 53% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 57% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Ham-Kam 4-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.70 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Ham-Kam attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Ham-Kam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.