Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fredrikstad have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Fredrikstad have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.50 for Fredrikstad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0 for Fredrikstad and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% versus Fredrikstad 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Fredrikstad 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.71 xG and Fredrikstad 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.866 / defence 1.326 | Fredrikstad attack 0.892 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.226. Fredrikstad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 23 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 33%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Fredrikstad 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Fredrikstad 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.71 / Fredrikstad 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.866 / def 1.326 | Fredrikstad attack 0.892 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Fredrikstad xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 44% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.87) and Fredrikstad's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.89x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.27
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.16
1.45
Fredrikstad xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.45 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 5D 11L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 3W 2D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.35 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.00 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 64%, Fredrikstad 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 46% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 36%; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 46% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 46% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fredrikstad defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.71 xG and Fredrikstad 1.45 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.87 / defence 1.33 against Fredrikstad attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 33%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fredrikstad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Fredrikstad 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.