Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 4W 2D 4L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bodo/Glimt in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 8 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–5 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% and Bodo/Glimt 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Bodo/Glimt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.53 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.861 / defence 1.061 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.134 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.357. Data: 33 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 32 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 36% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 40%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Bodo/Glimt 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 36% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.53 / Bodo/Glimt 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.861 / def 1.061 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.134 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Bodo/Glimt xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 36% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (9 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 8W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.86x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.13x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
36%
2.77
24%
4.25
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.17
1.63
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.63 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 15D 24L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.20 PPG from 60 outings (40W 12D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 9W 7D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.03 points per game from 30 outings (18W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.60 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.13 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 63% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 60% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 1-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.53 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.63 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 36% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 40%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%, Bodo/Glimt 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.