Sandefjord 1-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sandefjord Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 26 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games (0.78 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sandefjord Arena, Sandefjord have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mjondalen have collected 0.89 PPG across 9 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.78 for Sandefjord, 0.89 for Mjondalen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Mjondalen — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 44% versus Mjondalen 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 56% | Mjondalen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 0.89 xG and Mjondalen 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.690 / defence 1.242 | Mjondalen attack 0.767 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.459. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Sandefjord games / 9 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 24% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 48%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Mjondalen 2.08. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 25% | Mjondalen 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 24% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Sandefjord 0.89 / Mjondalen 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.690 / def 1.242 | Mjondalen attack 0.767 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Mjondalen xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Mjondalen kick off?
Sandefjord vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 July 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Sandefjord 1 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen part of?
Sandefjord vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 24% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sandefjord and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Mjondalen in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.77x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
24%
4.18
28%
3.62
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.28
1.39
Mjondalen xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
6%
16.76
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.2 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.39 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 1D 6L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjondalen sit at 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Sandefjord against 0.89 for Mjondalen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjondalen have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjondalen in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Mjondalen away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.00 PPG; Mjondalen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 0-3 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Mjondalen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 25%, Mjondalen 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sandefjord and 75% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Sandefjord's games and 100% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandefjord's matches and 75% of Mjondalen's.
Do Sandefjord and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Mjondalen 1-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 0.89 xG and Mjondalen 1.39 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjondalen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.69 / defence 1.24 against Mjondalen attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 24% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 48%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sandefjord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 56%, Mjondalen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 0.78 PPG, Mjondalen 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.