Sandefjord 1-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Lillestrom travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord at Jotun Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.10 (Lillestrom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandefjord register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lillestrom in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lillestrom have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Sandefjord.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 2–4 with Lillestrom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lillestrom have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Lillestrom trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 63% and Lillestrom 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 75% | Lillestrom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.94 xG and Lillestrom 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.981 / defence 0.967 | Lillestrom attack 0.752 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.451. Data: 59 Sandefjord games / 59 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 58% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 20%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Lillestrom 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Lillestrom 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 58% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Sandefjord 1.94 / Lillestrom 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.981 / def 0.967 | Lillestrom attack 0.752 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lillestrom xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Sandefjord 1 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom part of?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 58% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sandefjord and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Record (5 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 4W.
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.98) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.58
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.00
1.06
Lillestrom xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
34.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.06 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 59 games, going 13W 13D 33L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.63 PPG from 59 outings (29W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 7W 11D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (11W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.66 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 13W 13D 33L in their last 59 games (0.88 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 29W 9D 21L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.10 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Lillestrom runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Lillestrom have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 72%, Lillestrom at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sandefjord and 66% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sandefjord's games and 62% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sandefjord's matches and 66% of Lillestrom's.
Do Sandefjord and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Lillestrom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Lillestrom 1-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.94 xG and Lillestrom 1.06 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Lillestrom attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 58% | Draw 22% | Lillestrom 20%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 75%, Lillestrom 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.