Sandefjord 4-0 Kongsvinger – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandefjord and Kongsvinger meet at Release Arena in Eliteserien, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 16 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sandefjord (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 1W 4D 5L at Release Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.77 xG and Kongsvinger 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.857 / defence 1.362 | Kongsvinger attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.500. Data: 60 Sandefjord games / 0 Kongsvinger games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 40% | Draw 22% | Kongsvinger 38%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Kongsvinger 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger | Competition: Eliteserien, Relegation Round | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 40% | Draw 22% | Kongsvinger 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Sandefjord 1.77 / Kongsvinger 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.857 / def 1.362 | Kongsvinger attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Kongsvinger xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger kick off?
Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 16 November 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger?
Sandefjord 4 - 0 Kongsvinger.
Where is Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger part of?
Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 40% chance of winning, Kongsvinger a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sandefjord and Kongsvinger will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Kongsvinger?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Kongsvinger in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sandefjord home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.86) and Kongsvinger's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kongsvinger's attack (0.85x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
40%
2.52
22%
4.49
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.51
1.74
Kongsvinger xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Kongsvinger expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.74 for Kongsvinger, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
Kongsvinger
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
0
Draws
1
Kongsvinger
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Kongsvinger?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Kongsvinger have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Kongsvinger last play each other?
They last met on 19 November 2022, when Kongsvinger 2-1 Sandefjord.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Kongsvinger away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kongsvinger.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Kongsvinger 4-0 at Release Arena, Relegation Round, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.77 xG and Kongsvinger 1.74 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kongsvinger landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.86 / defence 1.36 against Kongsvinger attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 40% | Draw 22% | Kongsvinger 38%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.