Sandefjord vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Sandefjord Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sandefjord's home record at Sandefjord Arena: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Haugesund (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Haugesund are 0.50 PPG clear of Sandefjord in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 47% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 50% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.49 xG and Haugesund 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.842 / defence 0.983 | Haugesund attack 1.021 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Sandefjord games / 30 Haugesund games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 39% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 33%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Haugesund 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 39% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandefjord 1.49 / Haugesund 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.842 / def 0.983 | Haugesund attack 1.021 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Haugesund xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Haugesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Haugesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 39% chance of winning, Haugesund a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandefjord and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.84) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (1.02x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.62
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.84
1.35
Haugesund xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.35 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 8D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.30 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Haugesund away?
Haugesund's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sandefjord) and 60% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 47% of games; Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 60% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sandefjord's recent games and 60% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Sandefjord and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.49 xG and Haugesund 1.35 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Haugesund attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 39% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 33%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.17 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.