Rosenborg 2-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 43%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rosenborg vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 14 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion.
Viking have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Rosenborg 4W, Viking 3W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 44% versus Viking 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 50% | Viking 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.49 xG and Viking 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.238 / defence 0.866 | Viking attack 1.044 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.358. Viking's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Rosenborg games / 46 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 43% | Draw 26% | Viking 31%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 40% | Viking 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 43% | Draw 26% | Viking 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Rosenborg 1.49 / Viking 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.238 / def 0.866 | Viking attack 1.044 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Viking xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Viking kick off?
Rosenborg vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Viking.
Where is Rosenborg vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Viking part of?
Rosenborg vs Viking is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 43% chance of winning, Viking a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rosenborg and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
Record (9 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 2 | Viking 3W.
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.04x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.92
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.23
Viking xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.23 for Viking, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 12D 17L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 2.41 PPG from 46 outings (35W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 11W 8D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Viking have taken 2.26 points per game from 23 outings (16W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.52 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 67%.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Viking have gone 35W 6D 5L in their last 46 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.78 PPG; Viking away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Viking in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
2
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Viking have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Viking?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 52%, Viking 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rosenborg) and 65% (Viking).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Rosenborg's games and 70% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rosenborg's recent games and 65% of Viking's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Viking tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Viking in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Viking 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Viking 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.49 xG and Viking 1.23 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.24 / defence 0.87 against Viking attack 1.04 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 43% | Draw 26% | Viking 31%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 50%, Viking 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Rosenborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.